Reality Check

BY KEVIN KERNAN

Nerds have one fatal flaw.

They always have to show how smart they are, and you know what, they aren’t that smart. Especially when it comes to baseball. They may know numbers, but they don’t know common sense.

Just look at the lineup the Yankees put out there on Tuesday night in a 3-2 loss to the Mets at Yankee Stadium. Jahmai Jones was batting leadoff for the first time in the major leagues and journeyman J.D. Davis was inserted into the cleanup spot behind Aaron Judge.

You had to see it to believe it.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, who knows the Yankees Nerd lineup machinations well, having been bench coach for the Bronx Bombers, said, “Thank you very much,’’ as he walked Aaron Judge four times.

Nerds always want to re-invent the wheel.

Then they get run over.

And that is exactly what happened Wednesday night when the Mets crushed the Yankees and ace Gerrit Cole 12-3 to sweep the four-game Subway Series. The Yankees are officially a train wreck.

Cole has faced the Mets twice this season and has given up seven home runs in only 9.2 innings, including three on Wednesday night, one to Tyrone Taylor, another to Pete Alonso and an upper deck back-breaker to Francisco Lindor. Lindor hit two homers on the night. Cole has an 11.10 ERA against the Mets this season.

It is nights like this that are going to make the upcoming trade deadline so interesting. I love the trade deadline. I call it NRD, Nerd Reality Deadline, because all the garbage that the baseball bosses have been spewing since the winter meetings about their team being good and the future being bright, and they are “constantly looking to the future with an eye on today’’ has been exposed by the won and lost columns.

That’s a number they cannot manipulate, although with the help of Chancellor Manfred, more teams than ever are invited to the postseason dance to give the impression mediocre teams are in the race to gullible fans and media.

You are what your record says you are and only the most forgiving media, and those wanting trade scoops, still act like they believe in the BS.

Right Cubs?

Right Blue Jays?

Just to name a few teams who were on top of the Imaginary Contenders List at the start of the season. The list is long.

The trade deadline is when real decisions have to be made and teams that don’t make the right decisions, even if they had success in the regular season, will be reminded of their mistakes in the playoffs like what happened to the Orioles last year.

The trade deadline is the ultimate Reality Check.

That’s why here at Baseball or Bust I am not into instant coronations of POBOs, president of baseball operations, just because they happened to guide their teams to a last place finish or close to a last place finish and then happened to land top draft picks, making no-brainer top picks for several years to “rebuild’’ their teams.

How you fill in the blanks after you are gifted draft talent is what is vital.

Right Orioles?

The Orioles lost to the lowly Marlins again on Wednesday and are staggering along in the AL East, just as the Yankees are staggering along.

Corbin Burnes was a nice off-season addition for Baltimore, but you better come up with another starter by July 30 at 6 p.m. with all the starting pitching injuries you have suffered this season. Tarik Skubal is out there with the Tigers as is Jack Flaherty.

The Mets have flipped the script and will now become marginal buyers and not big-time sellers. The Mets have a good vibe going now, don’t mess it up.

The Yankees better make a deal for at least one hitter and a reliever.

Baseball oriented organizations figure it out.

There are so many teams who need help at the deadline that they will all need to make moves. The Pirates received the greatest gift of all with No. 1 pick Paul Skenes last year in the draft, yet they have done absolutely zero to build any kind of offense around the dominating right-hander. Skenes had another brilliant outing on Tuesday, losing to the Cardinals 2-1.

What a waste of a special talent, including burying Skenes in the minors at the start of the season when he could have been helping the now 52-50 Pirates win games. Skenes owns a 1.93 ERA over 12 MLB starts, allowing only 16 runs over 74.2 innings. He is 6-1 but could have won every start with just a bit more offense. Then there was the waste of seven minor league starts this year for service time manipulation. Five more Skenes starts earlier in the season could have eased their wild card burden a bit.

Yes, I’m looking hard at this trade deadline and at the Pirates; and don’t fall for the easy excuse the owner doesn’t want to spend money. Yes, it’s easier if the owner spends money but there are other ways to add offense. Figure it out, Pirates.

Baseball oriented organizations figure it out.

Organizations like Dave Dombrowski’s Phillies, who are running away with the NL East. The Phillies spend money and make smart moves as well.

I’m extremely interested in seeing what Dombrowski will do at the trade deadline because his team needs some real help in the bullpen. Aaron Nola left with a 3-1 lead on Wednesday over the Twins, but the bullpen blew it as Minnesota walked off with a 5-4 victory, so I fully expect the Phillies to go after A’s closer Mason Miller. Dombrowski thinks big. There are other interesting bullpen names out there including Toronto’s Yimi Garcia, Miami’s Tanner Scott, the White Sox’ Michael Kopech, the Angels’ Carlos Estevez and more.

Dombrowski is not the type to let a prospect hang around the organization if that prospect can be turned into gold and a trip to the World Series. The Phillies are that close and have the best record in baseball, but that bullpen gives any Phillies fan pause. Dombrowski knows how to get it done.

The Yankees can be thankful that John Henry is the owner of the Red Sox and does not seem to have the stomach to make any major moves at the deadline – even though Alex Cora has carved the Red Sox into an exciting team and was rewarded with a three-year contract extension on Wednesday. If the Red Sox were to make the postseason and squared off against the Yankees, Cora could do his usual annihilation of Aaron Boone in the battle of managers; and the Red Sox speed would be crushing to the Yankees who can’t guard against the stolen base and even more importantly don’t want to guard against the stolen base. They are more interested in their catchers framing than shutting down the opponent’s running game. That’s another Nerd flaw.

Maybe the Yankees will face off against a team that doesn’t steal bases.

The Yankees definitely need to make a significant deal or two at the trade deadline, but there is an issue.

“They don’t have a lot to trade unless they try to sell somebody on (Jasson) Dominguez,’’ one top talent evaluator told BallNine. “Maybe the Yankees will say, ‘He’s had Tommy John and he’s got a torn oblique, but he’s a superstar. Can you give us someone who is really good?’’’

The Yankees do have some talent in the minors, but will they part with any of it to help this team now? And this two-man offense in superstars Juan Soto and Aaron Judge needs help. Eventually Soto and Judge will get mentally and physically burned out carrying the heavy offensive load. Good offensive teams spread the wealth; they have role players.

The Alex Verdugo collapse combined with the non-surprise annual injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo have once again revealed the Yankees lack of depth. The Yankees need to spice it up a bit – and for that reason I think they should go out and trade for the Marlins Jazz Chisholm Jr.

I am not worried one bit about reports that Jazz’ “personality’’ could be a problem in the Yankees clubhouse. The Yankees could use a little fire because players like Gleyber Torres are sometimes half asleep. And then there is centerfielder Trent Grisham, who simply can’t hit and is too cool for school. Torres was switched to leadoff on Wednesday night and homered in the first inning, but it went all downhill from there.

You can see when opponents play the Yankees they don’t panic if the Yankees take an early lead because they know the offense is limited – as is the bullpen.

Verdugo was advertised as a dynamic player with personality, but he is really allowing his struggles to get to him, he is all show, no action. At least Chisholm has a passion for the game and with Aaron Judge the boss of the clubhouse, there will be no problems with Chisholm.

We will see if the Yankees can work out such a trade.

The Yankees can be thankful that the Orioles are struggling too.

And you can complain about GM for Life Brian Cashman, I hear you, the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009 with all their money and all the fans’ money that has been turned over to Hal Steinbrenner, but look at the mess up in Toronto. How POBO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have kept their jobs is beyond me. I guess Edward Rogers, chairman of the Blue Jays, knows very little about baseball and doesn’t care.

The ownership collection throughout the AL East is quite the group.

At least the NL Central Pirates only embarrass Pittsburgh. The Blue Jays embarrass an entire country, Oh, Canada!

The Blue Jays say they are not going to trade their top players including Vlad Guerrero Jr. but that team seems ripe for a teardown.

Toronto has not won a playoff game over the last eight seasons and last won the World Series in 1993.

The Rays often work wonders and make the playoffs, but have never won a World Series and have to compete while having only a fraction of the Yankees payroll.

Boston is not spending money like it once did. The Orioles never spend big money and moved their left field wall so far back, what hitters would want to play in Baltimore? That move was made to help the pitchers, but Mike Elias & Co. didn’t consider the impact it would have on the hitters. Hitters like Friendly Confines, that is one of the reasons Bryce Harper chose the Phillies and the home run haven that is Citizens Bank Park. And by the way, that’s another reason I would like to see Chisholm in pinstripes. Yankee Stadium is hitter’s gold, monstrous loanDepot Park is perfectly named for the cheap Marlins.

For what it’s worth, the Marlins just made a big hire. They hired Alexandre Andorra as a Senior Applied Scientist. Andorra, according to the X account, Fish on the Farm, is the co-founder of something called PyMC Labs, a Bayesian consulting firm that specializes in data analytics and predictive modeling.

Well, that certainly will turn around the last-place Marlins and their minus-145 run differential. It’s getting even more analytical in Miami, if such a thing is possible. Look out Phillies, Alexandre Andorra will run circles around Dave Dombrowski in the future.

Big names like centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. and starting pitcher Garrett Crochet, both of the White Sox, could be dealt as well. The Rays will be busy as always, and Randy Arozarena could be traded. He looks like a possible future Dodger. Third baseman Isaac Paredes may wind up going to the Yankees and closer Pete Fairbanks will be available too as the Rays are always in sell-off mode.

Teams like the Yankees cannot afford to sit still. They know this is probably their only year with Juan Soto. Soto sure looks like a future Met and it was interesting to see his conversations with Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez Wednesday night at the plate. Also interesting that Scott Boras was in the house for the Subway Series and was chatting with Mets boss David Stearns. I’ve known Scott a long time, since 1988, and no one knows how to work a room as well as Scott Boras – and he also makes sure to have the owners’ ear – that is the secret to his success.

Just imagine if the Mets are able to land free agent Soto and what a death blow that would be to the Yankees. The Yankees cannot just sit back. They need multiple deals to have a postseason chance.

Soto and Judge are spectacular but the drop-off is sudden after that as the Yankees cleanup hitter, no matter who is in that fourth spot, has the lowest OPS of any cleanup hitter in baseball.

Like I said, this upcoming Reality Check is real.