Secret Sauce

BY KEVIN KERNAN

This may well be the secret to baseball in 2024, at all levels.

It also may be the secret to life. This was told to me on Wednesday by a wise baseball man as we discussed what is going on in the game this year. Yes, I write for BallNine twice a week, but I talk baseball every day.

You may want to write this down.

And if you are an upper-level Baseball Nerd, you may want to have one of your interns write this down.

Regarding all the mistakes in the game that happen every game, in every way imaginable, in the most basic plays of the game, the baseball man – a man I had not spoken to in weeks because he has been busy attending baseball games and is so passionate about his job he doesn’t let anything else get in the way – offered this comment on the Art of Winning in 2024.

It is brilliant in its simplicity and accuracy.

“The thing is, you know how you win in baseball today,’’ he said, “you don’t have to be great. You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.

“If you can do that, you’ll win 95 games.’’

That is so true. The key to consistency is letting the other team make the mistakes. You are not going to play clean, no one does anymore – because player development has been taken over by The Stepford Wives nerds – but play cleaner than the other team.

That is kind of like life now, too. You don’t have to be great, let the other person make the mistakes and you will live long and prosper.

“You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.’’

This conversation came about because we were talking about the success of the Cleveland Guardians, especially their 9-5, 12-inning win over the high-priced Yankees Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium when things went the Yankees’ way early with two first-inning Yankee Stadium home runs by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, who will make a combined $71 million this season. The Guardians entire payroll is $106 million.

The Guardians were far from great.

In fact, they somehow left a stunning 20 men on base yet still won the game by four runs. How does that happen? It helped that Stephen Vogt, a rookie manager, but veteran baseball thinker, out-managed Aaron Boone.

There were an incredible amount of mistakes the sloppy Yankees made in that game, including Soto turning a David Fry single into a three-run triple in the 12^th and the Yankees botching a third-inning rundown. Worst of all, pinch-runner Trent Grisham never really put it in gear on a ball that hit the top of the wall in centerfield, where the left-fielder had to come over to pick the ball up and throw to the cutoff man who then made a wide throw home, yet the catcher still managed to dive-tag Grisham at home.

Now, I didn’t mention the wild pickoff throw at first base where Fry wound up going all the way to third, nor D.J. LeMahieu not touching the bag at first on what should have been a double play or D.J. not calling for the baseball after Steven Kwan just walked off the base or the ground ball where no one covered first base.

Mistake after mistake after mistake.

“You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.’’

Yes, you do.

Sure, LeMahieu went 0-for-5 and was batting .189 after the loss, but the Yankees made so many mental errors Tuesday night that they are what cost them the game.

I have a theory that this current 2024 generation of ballplayer – and not just the Yankees on a Tuesday night in the Bronx – has been so regimented in style of play by the Nerds, everything from constantly pulling a card out of their back pocket to see where to play defensively to being programmed by so much information on everything from hitting (what the pitcher throws and when he throws it) to not practicing common sense baseball skills like base-running and where to throw the ball, (look at the final play of their Little League loss to the Tigers in Williamsport) … that organic baseball plays are now difficult to make.

These players, for the most part, can’t think on their feet anymore.

They can’t react to the play. Now certainly there are exceptions to this and one occurred Wednesday afternoon in the Mets 4-3 walk-off win over the Orioles.

Pinch-hitter Jesse Winker, a solid left-handed bat pickup at the trade deadline, fell behind Seranthony Dominguez 0-2. Winker has been there before and did not offer at any of Dominguez’ next three pitches way off the outside part of the plate. Winker, seeing Dominguez, working away, even with a 99-mph fastball, was looking away and lined the next pitch over the left-center field fence for a game-winning home run. That was an organic swing. That was putting 2 plus 2 together, that was keeping the game simple and just trying to hit the ball the other way to get on base. Winker wound up with his first home run as a Met and it was a huge one, sending the Mets to San Diego on a high note.

Dominguez, on the other hand, had no clue what he was doing on the mound. Fascinated by his velo, the Orioles are realizing he can’t command his pitches.

Yes, the game is inundated with Velotians, people who only look at velocity and spin rate.

Acquired by the Orioles to try to save the terrible closing situation for Baltimore, you saw in this series why the Phillies parted with Dominguez. The Orioles, for all their success, made the terrible decision to sign Craig Kimbrel as their closer this year and that blew up in Mike Elias’ face. Kimbrel also surrendered a home run in this game. It was a bad day for Mike Elias. Dominguez allowed the first walk-off home run of Francisco Alvarez’ career in the first game of the series, falling behind 3-0 and then Alvarez punishing a fastball to centerfield.

Dominguez owns a 4.40 ERA. Kimbrel owns a 3.94 ERA.

And all this, of course, helps the Yankees in the AL East. Make less mistakes than the next guy and that is the team that will win the AL East. Despite losing three in a row for the Yankees it could have been much worse for Boone’s team. No matter how bad a loss there is, it is not a defining loss – and Tuesday night was a bad loss – but the other guy is bound to make mistakes too.

“You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.’’

That is the secret of success in 2024.

“Let the other team make the mistakes and take advantage,’’ the baseball man said. “Nobody can lay down a bunt. None of the outfielders know where to throw the baseball. Nobody helps them and screams to them where to throw the ball. They also should be telling you ahead of time what to do and nobody does that.’’

And here comes the magic word for all this and why it is such a mess. Accountability. There is no accountability anymore. That is one of the biggest issues with Boone. He’s too busy showing off his Juan Soto shuffle, and Boone has always been better at imitating batting stances than holding players accountable. I know it is not an easy job in 2024 because clearly the inmates run the asylum. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.

I really liked what Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said on Wednesday about the message he sends across to his players. It is only three words, but it says a lot. Here it is:

“Win this pitch.’’

It’s a simple message and includes a word that is not used as much in baseball as it once was and that’s “win.’’

How often do you hear hitters say today, “I wanted to put my “A’’ swing on the pitch.’’ No, win the at-bat any way you can.

Sometimes a “C’’ swing works too. On Cleveland’s game changing triple by David Fry that drove in three runs in the 12th, it was an 0-2 pitch that was away and he poked it to right-center. The exit velo barely made it to 90 mph but it got the job done.

Now, some Cleveland hitter who hit the ball at 108 mph earlier in the game but flew out may get more credit in the Nerd postgame report card, but I will take the 90 mph three-run triple every day of the week … and so will Stephen Vogt.

“Win this pitch.’’

If you constantly drive that message home, not only to hitters, but to pitchers and fielders: “Win this pitch,’’ that’s a winning message.

To be fair, the Mets make as many mistakes as anyone, check out the ninth inning on Tuesday night where they botched a fly ball and then threw the baseball all over the field in their 9-5 loss to the Orioles at Citi Field. Between the Yankees and the Mets both being at home on Tuesday night and both playing terrible baseball, that might have been one of the least fundamentally sound baseball days in New York City history.

“You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.’’

From people I have talked to, this is all because of the sad state of player development in 2024. So many unqualified people are in charge who do not know the basics of teaching the game and certainly do not know the nuances of the game. I have heard it has gotten so bad that even those coaches who know what they are doing are not allowed to teach it their way now – and must adhere to the basics and metrics set down by the Nerds; those coaches are terribly frustrated.

“They are disgusted,’’ one longtime observer of the game, who speaks to every organization told me. “So disgusted that they are ready to walk away from the game.’’

And how about this: “In the minor leagues now,’’ said one scout, “all the time you will now see guys forget the outs. I saw one outfielder do it in back-to-back games so how am I supposed to think you are a prospect when you don’t know how many f— outs there are? They are going to have to start giving them one of those umpire clickers.’’

If it wasn’t so sad, it would be funny.

“Everybody is using computers,’’ the scout said, “the best computer is between your ears. That is the best baseball computer there ever was, but you have to know how to use it.’’

That’s why teams who draft and sign players who know how to play the game, will be ahead of those who live only in Velo World and pitching and hitting labs.

“You just have to let the other team make the mistakes.’’

That is the secret sauce to winning baseball in 2024.