Real Numbers

BY KEVIN KERNAN

My friend Silvio from Carlsbad really crunches the numbers.

And he is not a Nerd. His numbers make baseball sense. That means something.

Before this World Series started, Silvio called me to make me aware of a telling trend he noticed. These are not elaborate numbers, but he felt they spoke the truth about the difference this season between the American League and the National League – and why the Dodgers would beat the Yankees in the World Series.

Going into Game 3 Monday night at Yankee Stadium, the Dodgers own a 2-0 lead on the Yankees. This will be the first World Series game played at Yankee Stadium since November 4, 2009, and I was there when the Yankees finished off the Phillies 7-3 in Game 6.

The Yankees, Silvio pointed out, were 23-23 this season in interleague play. After two games against the Dodgers in the World Series, that makes them 23-25 vs. the NL in 2024. In fact, Silvio noted, of the six AL playoff teams, only one had a winning record against the NL in interleague play. That would be the Guardians who were 24-22; not exactly dominating the NL.

The Orioles were 20-26 against the NL, the Tigers were 22-24, Kansas City was 23-23 and the Astros were 22-24. In addition, the Yankees, Orioles, Royals and Guardians were all 1-2 vs. the Dodgers.

The numbers were quite striking in the National League too. Silvio looked at all seven NL playoff teams – yes, he counted the Diamondbacks, who had the same 89-73 record as the Mets and Braves but lost on the tiebreaker.

The Braves and Brewers had the best record of all against the AL at 31-15 and the Dodgers were close behind at 30-16. The Padres were 27-19 vs. the AL and the Phillies were 26-20. The Mets and Diamondbacks were both 24-22. All the NL playoff teams were above .500 against the AL. Three of those teams had winning records against the Yankees. The Mets were 4-0, the Braves and Dodgers were 2-1.

I still don’t know what Aaron Boone and the Yankee Nerds were thinking.

The interleague play results showed how strong the National League was this year against the American League, no matter what team came out of the AL to play in the World Series. The National League, playoff-wise, was better top to bottom. Again, only one American League playoff team was over .500 against the NL and that was the Guardians at 24-22 while all the NL playoff teams were at least over .500 against the AL.

So here we are with the Yankees facing a must-win situation Monday. Aaron Judge is not hitting, the defense has been shaky. Gleyber Torres kicked a key throw from the outfield with Anthony Rizzo, just standing there, and not backing up in Game 1.

It was kind of like the Anti-Flip; Derek Jeter made the Flip Play against the A’s, writing another chapter to his postseason success story.

Then there was one of the weirdest decisions I have ever seen as well in the Game 1 loss with Nestor Cortes – who had not pitched in 37 days because of a flexor sprain – brought in to pitch in the 10th inning against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani popped up and after an intentional walk to Mookie Betts to load the bases, Freeman jumped on a fastball that was in his happy place, a fastball that might have looked okay in a simulated game to all the Pitch Lab guys and girls, and the Yankees went from Game 1 winners to instant losers in LA as Freeman blasted a walk-off grand slam for the 6-3 win.

I still don’t know what Aaron Boone and the Yankee Nerds were thinking.

Sometimes it’s about trying to show the world how smart you are instead of just doing the common sense baseball thing to win the game, and that would have been to bring in lefty Tim Hill who has been one skinny beast this season coming out of the pen.

In Game 2, Hill came on and got Freeman to pop up on one pitch.

As they say, a day late and a dollar short.

Noted one longtime baseball evaluator, “Not good. Freeman with the game on the line might have been the worst possible matchup for Nasty Nestor.’’

It was the grand slam of bad baseball decisions. This wasn’t some midweek game in July, this was Game 1 of the World Series.

It’s a different world in the World Series than on some spreadsheet.

Oh, and did we mention it was also the night Aaron Boone pulled Gerrit Cole after only 88 pitches? Yikes.

Dave Roberts and his Dodger Nerds made a similar terrible decision with Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 with the Dodgers leading 4-1 and Yamamoto cruising, having allowed only one hit, a Juan Soto home run, in the third inning. None of that mattered; when the Nerds say you must go, you go – so with one out in the seventh Yamamoto took a seat after having thrown only 86 pitchers.

Evidently, 85 pitches are the new 120 pitches. The Dodgers bullpen then made a mess of things and the Yankees had a chance to go ahead in the ninth, but finally lefty Alex Vesia came on to get the last out as pinch-hitter Jose Trevino flied out.

Imagine if the Yankees went out and traded for a bench bat at the trade deadline?

The Yankees are still getting nothing from Aaron Judge as he is swinging off his back leg and swinging uphill. The Dodgers have had scouts on the Yankees for a while and they are attacking Judge perfectly. Judge has one hit, a double, in nine at-bats against the Dodgers and is a lifetime .199 hitter in the postseason – and is at .150 this postseason. It is ugly and the Yankees should flip-flop Judge with Giancarlo Stanton at this stage of the game, put Stanton third and Judge fourth. In that way, opposing teams may not so readily intentionally walk the hot-hitting Juan Soto. Soto is hitting .350 this postseason.

The Dodgers lineup is deeper than the Yankees and that is why I picked the Dodgers in seven games before the World Series started. The Yankees just can’t sit back and do the same things they have been doing in the regular season – and making the same mistakes – like the Gleyber Torres lazy error, and Anthony Rizzo falling asleep allowing Shohei Ohtani to take third base after his double in the eighth inning of Game 1. Ohtani scored on a sacrifice fly, little things done right, allowing the Dodgers to tie the score at 2-2.

Ohtani is supposed to be good to go for Game 3 Monday night after injuring his shoulder on one of the worst slides I have ever seen from a major leaguer in Game 2. Ohtani was in the midst of stealing a base with the Dodgers already three runs ahead. Dumb.

That was a steal attempt built on so many easy steals during the regular season because Rob Manfred has made stealing bases child’s play.

Bad new rules create bad situations.

Imagine if Ohtani was seriously hurt on the play. The new rules almost caused the best player in the game to be sidelined in the premier event in the game.

The Yankees are a paltry 2-for-14 with RISP. If they are going to come back and make this a series, that must change. The Yankees are home and hoping for the best, and in 1996 they lost the first two games of the World Series to the Braves at Yankee Stadium and went on to win the World Series in six games.

And, of course, the Yankees were ahead of the Red Sox, 3-0 in that 2004 ALCS and somehow managed to lose four straight games  – and I was there to see it live – and now there is a new Netflix docuseries called The Comeback in which AMBS makes a cameo appearance chatting it up with super fan Spike Lee.

Yankee fans certainly don’t want to relive any of that right now, they have enough problems of their own in 2024, including some bad sportsmanship with Yankee fans cheering Ohtani’s injury.

The Yankees are in desperate need of good karma now.

The Dodgers want to show the world that money can buy a championship on the West Coast, too. They haven’t won a real-World Series since 1988 and yes, I was there too for Kirk Gibson’s magical limp-off home run. I don’ count the season of 2020 which was spring training, essentially. Not a real championship, Dodgers.

To win the World Series, there must be some miracle-like performances like Freeman’s grand slam and the Yankees losing their common sense at that moment, but there also must be good old clutch hitting, defense and fundamentals.

So far, the Dodgers are winning in those areas.

The Yankees are performing like the mediocre team that was 23-23 against the NL this season in interleague play and is now 23-25. That is not going to get it done.

There must be an attitude adjustment and a physical adjustment. From Day One of this season the Dodgers believed they were the best team in baseball with their Big Three: Ohtani, Betts and Freeman. They have brought the same focus that made them 30-16 in the regular season in interleague play, including that 2-1 record against the Yankees, to this World Series.

Some numbers don’t lie.

The challenge is the Yankees must be better than they were during the season. The Dodgers just must find a way to win two more games to show the world they are exactly who they said they are and to do that, they need to get more tremendous starting pitching and make the most out of it.

One tip to both teams, if your starter is cruising, let him go 100 pitches and beyond. You are not saving any pitches for off-season pitching lab, Nerds.

You are trying to win a World Series.