Roki Road

BY KEVIN KERNAN

Decision 2025.

The losers will be dealt a serious blow.

The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are all awaiting Roki Sasaki’s final decision on where he will pitch, a decision that could be made at any moment by the young Japanese superstar as the international signing period opened Wednesday.

Before we go any further, let us determine how good the right-hander can be in the majors. And for that I will let an expert speak in Orestes Destrade, who was a star hitter in Japan and has kept a close eye on Sasaki.

Destrade does not mince words. He said Sasaki, in the end, will be “the best’’ Japanese pitcher to ever come to Major League Baseball. There you have it.

That is what we are talking about here, folks. The Decision truly will be a game changer for these three franchises.

If the Dodgers land Sasaki, it is liftoff for a Dodger Dynasty as the defending World Champions are a full go for their second straight World Series win. The Dodgers have never won back-to-back World Series.

If the Padres sneak in to grab Sasaki, there is hope the Padres can finally get over the hump and win the first World Series in franchise history.

If the Blue Jays somehow come up with Sasaki, Canada will once again have a voice in baseball. Toronto has become a Lost Franchise and desperately needs such a boost.

Add Sasaki to that deep rotation and once again the Dodgers are the Big Blue favorites to win the World Series.

I know this offseason belonged to Juan Soto – and I never doubted he would sign with the Mets – but, to me, Sasaki is the great get of this offseason because of his pitching potential. The Mets and Yankees could not even make the final cut, which is deeply concerning for both franchises. The Mets pivoted on Wednesday and signed 17-year-old shortstop Elian Peña out of the Dominican Republic to a $5 million deal. Peña is considered the next best international free agent, so that is a good acquisition, but we all know it is all about pitching and the lack of an ace that could be the Mets downfall. Still, the Mets gave the Dodgers a much better fight in the NLCS than the Yankees did in the World Series, but they simply ran out of pitching – while the Dodgers have already added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

Add Sasaki to that deep rotation and once again the Dodgers are the Big Blue favorites to win the World Series.

I find it hard to believe that Roki would choose the Blue Jays, who simply can’t get out of their own way and finished in last place in the AL East in 2024 with an embarrassing 74-88 record. Slugger Vlad Guerrero Jr. is a free agent after the 2025 season and my guess he will wind up with the Red Sox or Yankees. Why would Sasaki want to lock himself into a sub-.500 club with all kinds of problems when he could pitch for the Dodgers? The Blue Jays have not won a playoff series since 2016. It is a baseball dead end.

The Padres are hoping that Sasaki’s close relationship with Yu Darvish sways him to sign in San Diego. But how much longer is Darvish going to pitch? He is 38. And if you have been paying attention you will notice the Padres are in a bit of ownership hell right now with Peter Seidler’s widow suing two of her brothers-in-law of fiduciary breaches of trust and fraud in their management of the Seidler Trusts, which oversee the Padres.

I am no legal expert that is for sure, but I’ve been around long enough to know when there is a serious ownership spat it rarely turns out well for the baseball team. It becomes a dreaded distraction or worse, so the Padres are in the middle of that right now.

My friend Tom Krasovic, a terrific reporter at the San Diego Union-Tribune, one of my former work stops, wrote an excellent piece about the Sasaki pursuit on Wednesday and insisted: “A legal spat needn’t spell trouble for the prospect of Sasaki-mania arising in San Diego.’’

He pointed out that the legal situation can be addressed with contractual safeguards that would allow the pitcher to become a free agent if certain circumstances arose during the six years.

It is interesting to note that Sheel Seidler, Peter’s widow, reposted the article on X on Wednesday, writing, “Great article by @SDUTKrasovic. Peter and I watched Roki for years and I know Peter is rooting for AJ to get this done. 🤎💛’’

The fact that the wife of Peter Seidler, who was beloved in San Diego for spending gobs of cash on the Padres, weighed in on the Sasaki pursuit tells you how important Sasaki is to San Diego.

My question is does Sasaki, who seems to be the quiet, reserved type, want the hassle of having to have those contractual safeguards in place and the prospect of moving on before he has to move? He has conducted a most thorough exploration of teams in a sincere, definitive way and is looking for a real baseball home, not a place with ownership intrigue and the real possibility of it falling apart in San Diego and having to pick up and move on.

No doubt San Diego is more lowkey than Los Angeles, I spent 10 years working there and loved the lifestyle, but the Padres always seem to have some kind of trouble brewing just below the surface no matter who owns the team or runs the ballclub. Some crazy stuff has happened in San Diego through the decades.

I was there the night club president Chub Feeney gave the fans the finger on Fan Appreciation Night. Then there was the time long ago in 1974 that owner Ray Kroc took to the public address system to rip his team, saying “I’ve never seen such stupid ball playing in my life.’’

You simply cannot make this stuff up.

The Padres have been around since 1969 and have only made it to two World Series. In 1984 they lost in five games to the mighty Tigers, then in 1998 they were swept by the juggernaut Yankees, and I was there for that one. All that made last year’s excruciating loss in the NLDS that much more painful. Padres fans sell out their beautiful ballpark Petco Park and are totally devoted to their team.

The Padres have their act together now on the field and last season it was a joy to watch their games. The players played the game right under Mike Shildt and AJ Preller put together a team capable of winning the World Series even though he had to cut $90 million. Dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees turned out to be a great move for the Padres. Unfortunately for them, the bats just disappeared those last two games against the Dodgers or else they would have made it to the NLCS. The Dodgers pitching stifled the Padres as much as the Padres hurt themselves the last two games.

The name of the game is always the same – pitching. Starting pitching has never been more valuable because the Nerds have done their best to destroy starting pitching in a variety of ways. The Dodgers certainly had a slew of pitching injuries. The Padres have a tremendous pitching coach in Ruben Niebla as do the Blue Jays in Pete Walker.

The Dodgers do have incredible depth right now in the rotation and that means Sasaki can ease his way into Major League Baseball. Only 23, the pitching world should not be on his shoulders. There will be an adjustment period. Depending on Shohei Ohtani’s health and that is a big if, here is what the Dodger rotation looks like at this moment: Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Bobby Miller and Michael Grove.

That is a lot of arms to help protect Sasaki as the Dodgers can easily go to a six-man rotation and with Ohtani and Yamamoto there, Sasaki will have two of his teammates from the Japanese WBC team that won the championship in 2023. Darvish was on that team as well; I reached out to a scout familiar with the Dodgers situation and he offered this fascinating comment. He believes Sasaki will pick the Padres because of his connection to his mentor Yu Darvish and noted “in talking to some of my Japanese colleagues this year I get the feeling it would be a big dishonor for him to not sign with his mentor’s team.’’

That’s an intriguing comment but will the Dodgers ability to win multiple World Series with Sasaki in the rotation outweigh all that? Because this is an international signing, money is not the issue. Sasaki will be limited to whatever is available in the Dodgers or Padres or Blue Jays international bonus pools. There will be plenty of money to be made on the side in endorsements for Roki as well. This should only be a baseball decision.

Where do I fit best?

What team offers me the best chance to win a World Series?

If that is indeed the case, there really is only one answer.

The Roki Road leads to Dodger Stadium and joining the rotation of the World Series champions.