The Science of Hitting

BY KEVIN KERNAN

Nine games into the season, the Red Sox find themselves five games back of the Yankees. That is hard to do and going into Monday’s action that is the biggest last-to-first deficit in the major leagues.

There are many reasons for Boston being underwater, including letting two Massachusetts-bred players get out from under the Red Sox’ noses to the Yankees in young pitching stud Cam Schlittler and power-hitting first baseman Ben Rice, but what has really struck me – and scouts – about the Red Sox early struggles is their lack of fundamentally sound play and lack of baseball intuition.

Let me be clear — the Red Sox are not the only team struggling in that area, but their fundamental beliefs appear to be dead wrong, as well as their fundamental play.

They make too many physical and mental errors. They don’t make enough contact, they simply don’t play enough baseball. It is really that simple.

It’s called baseball for a reason, not analytics ball.

Many teams including the Red Sox, have forgotten that. This is one weird place that an Alex Cora managed team finds itself in these days and the Red Sox need to start playing baseball again.

One longtime scout, a true baseball man, offered this observation and I think he nailed it in what is wrong with the Red Sox and what is wrong with so many teams.

You practice what you preach and if you preach analytics over baseball, you are going to get Analytics Ball, not Baseball.

Read these words carefully at Baseball or Bust.

“You know, when you don’t practice the game, you don’t get any better at the game,’’ he told BallNine on Monday, a common-sense evaluation of a common problem in the game today. “You might get better with your exit velocity, your spin rate or whatever, but when you don’t execute things, my gosh, teams are striking out 10, 12, 15 times a game. It’s all about chasing gaudy measurable tools as opposed to being a complete player, a player who puts the ball in play and gets hits, it’s not just about hitting a ball hard or hitting a home run.’’

You practice what you preach and if you preach analytics over baseball, you are going to get Analytics Ball, not Baseball.

This is a much different landscape, but to me, that comment reminded me of comments made by late great Civil War historian Shelby Foote, comments always rooted in common sense and fact.

It is easy to get lost in the Metric World that baseball has sold its soul to, and the Red Sox under Craig Breslow, Brez, as I like to call him, are lost right now on the field and in the decisions they are making. Remember, this is a team that basically told Hall of Famer Jim Rice not to work with their hitters.

Instead of a Hall of Fame instruction, they have gone super heavy into the Driveline way.

Going into Monday’s action the Red Sox were hitting .226 as a team, 17th in baseball and post an ugly .297 on-base percentage, 20th in baseball. Currently, 12 teams post an average of .220 or lower. Another 12 teams post an under .300 on-base percentage. That is pathetic.

The Red Sox have sent key veterans packing over the years starting with Mookie Betts, traded to the Dodgers in one of the worst deals of all time; and then more recently Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers.

Bregman walked away to the Cubs as a free agent and Devers was traded to the Giants. Both players are struggling, but that is not the point, the point is there is a major lack of leadership on the Red Sox and that is a direct result of John Henry being owner of the Red Sox. I maintain the Red Sox lost their ownership competitive edge when the late Larry Lucchino was nudged out the front office door.

The Yankees have Aaron Judge as their on-field and in-clubhouse leader. The Red Sox don’t have anything close.

Fans have let Henry have it with “Sell the team!” chants. Cora is a manager I respect, but who can he lean on these days in his clubhouse? He had better find a way to shake it up quickly in Beantown or the Red Sox will be out of the running early.

Henry hired Breslow, another analytical geek, who also happened to be a major league relief pitcher for many years. After spending a lifetime in locker rooms and clubhouses I have always said there is nothing more dangerous to a baseball clubhouse than a relief pitcher who thinks he knows it all … and Breslow as president of baseball ops is the ultimate know it all reliever now in charge.

When Bregman left, the Red Sox pivoted – you could say panicked – and signed free agent pitcher pitcher Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million contract. Suarez is a pitcher who relies on hitting the edges and he is not hitting any edges. With the ABS system in place, you have to be more precise than ever if you cannot blow the baseball past hitters like say, Schlittler can do.

Right now, Suarez is a victim of ABS. Those friendly calls he has gotten in the past from umpires with generous strike zones are no longer there, so he has lost his pitching way, my guess is he is trying to be too fine, trying not to make mistakes and you know what happens when you try not to make mistakes.

You make enough mistakes to post a hideous 8.64 ERA after two starts.

The Red Sox have some good young talent, but they are asking way too much after throwing Roman Anthony into the deep end of the major league pool. Same goes for young Marcelo Mayer. And the evaluation was really off when last April the Red Sox and Brez gave Kristian Campbell an eight-year, $60 million contract extension.

Campbell remains in the minors trying to learn his craft.

Maybe metrics will make him a major league player, not baseball work. But I doubt it and that is the central point here. Too many front offices have forgotten about baseball principles. See the ball, hit the ball. Run hard. Hustle.

I will say this, the Marlins, have put some real baseball into their teaching ways.

“They run out every ball hard,’’ said a scout who was at Yankee Stadium for the series where, if not for a panic move, removing the starter after 4.2 innings, the Marlins might have won two out of three from the Yankees.

Ask Jazz Chisholm if the Marlins run out every ball.

So far, the Red Sox are averaging 10.3 Ks per game. That is no way to start the season, and one of the treats of watching the NESN postgame shows is seeing Jim Rice shaking his head about all the strikeouts.

By the way, the 2-7 start matches the Red Sox worst start since 1945. One more number to digest. The Red Sox are 27th in starters ERA at 5.19. The Yankees with Schlittler – who pitched 1.4 miles away from Fenway Park at Parsons Field for Northeastern – leading the way, have the best starters ERA at 1.81. Those 1945 Red Sox finished 71-83, seventh place in an eight-team American League.

On the bright side, the next season with Ted Williams returning, the Red Sox won 104 games to win the AL pennant. The Splendid Splinter had an incredible year, leading baseball in on-base percentage at .497 and slugging at .667 while striking out only 44 times in 672 plate appearances. He batted .342 with 38 home runs, 123 RBIs and led the league in 142 runs scored and 156 walks. That also was the year Teddy Ballgame hit the 502-foot red seat home run and won his first AL MVP. Not bad after a three-year layoff.

That was the science of hitting, not the metrics of hitting.

“Hips ahead of hands,’’ is the way Ted Williams put it in a terrific 1972 teaching video. He also emphasized “being observant. How did he pitch the batter before you? Build yourself a frame of reference.’’ And as Rogers Hornsby once told Ted, the best hitting advice Williams ever got, “Kid, get a good ball to hit.’’

In this classic video, Williams signed off with these wise words: “Remember this, to do anything well in sports, you have to practice. Hitting a baseball is no different, you just have to take the time to work at it, and this means practice and more practice and more practice.’’

EXTRA BASES: Bonehead play of the week goes to the Giants Matt Chapman, who tried to steal second with no outs in the ninth inning Sunday against the Mets, with the Giants down 5-2 and the heart of the order coming up. He was thrown out. “I have no idea what he was doing,’’ a veteran baseball man told me. “A lot of nights now, nothing makes sense when you watch it, you just shake your head’’ … It is not just Paul Skenes for the Pirates. Going into Monday, Pirates starters were the only starters in baseball not to have surrendered a home run. Next came the Angels starters (2) and the Yankees starters (2) … Pitching tip of the day in the ABS age, pitchers use your fastballs up in the zone more. “There are too many pitchers all into trickery and swing and miss. I’m seeing pitchers doubling up on changeups, speeding up the hitters’ bats,’’ one scout said. “You can’t be afraid to throw your fastball, but you can’t just throw it down the middle. Fastball command is still the most important thing to have.’’