FIP This

BY KEVIN KERNAN

Long before there was FAFO, there was this: What goes around, comes around.

That is the precarious stage Major League Baseball finds itself in right now. It is only going to get worse. Just wait until there is a lockout and then expansion so the owners can pocket even more money. On the positive side, a few teams are starting to figure it out, at least partially. But most teams are still lost in a Perfect Storm Sea of Analytics.

In fact, I’m still waiting for the Moneyball A’s to win a World Series, but that is a whole ‘nother story.

What are these teams figuring out you ask?

As simple as it sounds, they are figuring out they are playing baseball – yes, baseball – and there are many tools in the toolbox if you attempt to play baseball: excellent defense, bunting, hitting the ball the opposite way, base-running, going first to third, taking advantage of any signs of weakness.

What has gotten out of control is that so much emphasis has been put on metrics, the players are no longer taught how to win. You may win the analytic pitch or at bat, but you are going to lose the war to a team that emphasizes baseball and winning. A winning hit at 77-mph looks the same as 97 in the box score.

And you know what has been lost in the sauce most of all? Learning how to win and understanding the benefits winning creates mentally for baseball players.

It all starts with pitching, of course, and baseball has lost its way. Winning has been devalued at every level by the snake oil salesmen running teams. And by some members of the media too.

And before we get to the major leagues, let’s get to the minor leagues and show you what is really going on down there, something most of those covering minor leagues do not address. This is directly coming from a baseball man to Baseball or Bust.

“I just had a series in High A where every failure came to the forefront,’’ the baseball man explained.

Physical and mental errors that have never been more abundant at that level and across baseball, because metrics-reading analytic Yes Men have replaced real teachers of baseball.

And you know what has been lost in the sauce most of all? Learning how to win and understanding the benefits winning creates mentally for baseball players.

“It came to a head for me in this one game,’’ the baseball man said.

On the mound was a pitcher with a pretty good delivery, a good-looking prospect who pitched in college.

“His team is winning 9-2, two outs in the fifth inning, he’s got 76 pitches and he gives up a double, a flare double,’’ the baseball man said. “The top of the order is coming up, and the opposing team’s best hitter is coming up.’’

The batter coming to the plate, the baseball man put a Daniel Murphy comp on him. “He’s a left-handed hitter and everything about him is Daniel Murphy.’’

Here will be a solid test for the pitcher, who has a seven-run lead with two outs in the fifth, the perfect time for the pitcher to dig a little deeper, challenge himself, get out of the inning, qualify for the win and move on to the next game. It is how you get better, right?

Wrong!

Not in the Nerds’ overprotective world where pitching injuries are occurring at a monumental pace despite the babying of pitchers like never before.

The baseball man could not believe what he saw next.

“The manager comes out and takes him out; they are winning 9-2. He is one out away from a win. So, the foundation of building a good player is him having success and having confidence and having 15 wins or 12 wins and only three or four losses and having a low ERA,’’ the baseball man said. “This kid has almost a 4.00 ERA because he doesn’t have any innings. Every time he gives up runs, or throws 20-plus pitches in an inning, they take him out. Here is the perfect time to learn, he’s got leeway to get through the inning. Let him face their top hitter so he can say, ‘Yeah, I got his ass out. I got a W. I’m done.’

“But they don’t do it.’’

No, they don’t — and it is not a surprise that this pitcher’s major league team is well under .500 and has all kinds of pitching issues created by their Nerds.

Here is a chance to pitch out of the stretch and learn something: and pick up a win, too. Wins are important for the development of confidence of a young pitcher.

This is where I tell the Jim Kaat, Jack McKeon story. In Missoula, Montana, Kaat – who was just a kid learning to pitch – ran into a problem where the future Hall of Famer and perennial Gold Glove winner loaded the bases with no outs.

McKeon strolls out, spits tobacco juice and says, “Kid, you got yourself into this jam, get yourself out.’’

Kaat figured it out all the way to Cooperstown.

Today’s young pitchers are not given the opportunity to figure it out because the Helicopter Parent Nerds don’t allow them to figure it out and that is why you see so many innings spiral out of control when they make it to the majors.

You will see incredible pitchers like Paul Skenes locked in a 2-2 tie with the mighty Dodgers. He comes out after six innings and 102 pitches, and the Dodgers immediately put up a 10-spot. You see Giants Logan Webb spinning a masterpiece after eight innings with 99 pitches and leading 3-1. Tony Vitello and his merry band of Yes Men and Women remove Webb, and the game is lost in the ninth inning as the Nationals score three runs for the 4-3 steal.

I’ve got news for you Nerds, that is the easiest way for a manager to lose a team and that is where the Giants are headed.

All the seeds of failure – just look at the poor records of teams in the majors – are planted in the minor leagues with moves like taking out a prospect with one out to go to qualify for the win and only 76 pitches and the chance to face a High A hitter who actually might be a major leaguer someday.

It is the tamping down of competition and it is happening all over baseball, and America these days. Everybody gets a trophy.

Winning is important. Learning to win at the minor league level is important. The Dollar Tree Rays run their minor leagues in that fashion, and it pays off at the major league level when they have to keep up with the high-spending Yankees. And the Yankees are doing some solid baseball things, too.

Teach how to win, teach how to bunt, teach how to hit the ball the other way, teach and preach defense. Teach starters how to go deeper into games and teach catchers how to catch.

A scout this week told me he was at a minor league game where the “framing is all that matters’’ catcher dropped a stunning 33 pitches in one game. “He missed strikes,’’ the scout said.

In their 7-5 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday the Rays put together a fifth inning that tied the defensive-challenged Red Sox into knots.

In the three-run bottom of fifth at the Trop, Red Sox put on a clinic on how NOT to play defense. They could not defend the bunt, botched a ground ball to shortstop, a come-backer to the pitcher was muffed and an easy pop fly to right-field became a sac fly because the right-fielder who has a good arm, did not set up properly to throw home.

Hey, but the Red Sox hitters picked up the slack. The top four hitters in their first eight at-bats, struck out … with 11 Ks from them for the game as Tampa pitchers struck out 15 Driveline Red Sox. Boston is 1-35 this season when the opposing team gets a two-run lead.

The 27-39 Red Sox are an analytics-driven team that does not understand baseball, and it shows every day, every game. I had to laugh because when the poor pitcher muffed the comebacker, it bounced off his body and went to short left field. The lefty had no chance to field the ball with how he finished his max-effort delivery. This was no Jim Kaat. But that is what they are teaching these days, so much velocity your body spins like a top and you are in no position to field. That is why you are seeing so many pitchers getting hit with baseballs right back at them these days. If they do happen to catch it, they are so off-balance they often throw the ball away. They might as well not even have a glove. The entire situation is dangerous.

It is all about velo and spin.

This also was a week where Manny Machado, who is struggling mightily, called out analytics. Maybe he reads BallNine. I do know he talks to Alex Rodriguez about this stuff.

“I wish we could get the analytics out of the way,’’ he told reporters. “There are too many stats out there. Way too many numbers. I don’t know half the stuff that goes up there. I look at the board sometime and I ask the guys, what is WCVBB-whatever? What are these names being created? The pitching stuff, FIP or something like that. What is that?’’

When told FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) it is taking out the defense in the pitching evaluation, Manny, a commonsense baseball player, said, “But it takes a team to win a ballgame, not just one person. One guy could carry a team, but this is a team sport, you don’t win a championship by just one player or two, it takes a whole village (of players) to do it.’’

That is exactly what our baseball man said earlier.

The Nerds in the media, and there are many of them in both print and TV, fired back saying Manny is whining because he is having a terrible year, but those were all good questions by Manny and my educated guess, he is trying to tell new Padres ownership, “Hey, let’s get back to baseball.’’

“Why are we creating all these stats for?’’ Manny wondered. “I think that is the problem with baseball right now.’’

That is the problem. Real baseball men know what’s wrong and they need to continue to speak up.

Get back to teaching winning. FIP this.